Besides the Congress and BJP, there are the RJD, JD(U), VIP, HAM, LJP, AIMIM, JSP, RLM, Left Parties, and JAP.
No party has crossed a 25 percent vote share in the Bihar assembly elections in the last two decades. In this scenario, where the leading party’s vote share is in the 20s, alliances are crucial.
In Bihar, a single party never wins; it’s always a coalition of four to five. The state’s complex caste politics makes it challenging for newcomers, despite the prohibition in place.
I recently returned from a week’s tour of Bihar and will analyse who has an edge in the upcoming election. Does the NDA have an advantage in the final phase? Did the opposition peak too early with their ‘Voter Adhikar Yatra’ over the SIR (special intensive revision) issue? Let’s break it down.
First, the NDA has a formidable caste alliance this time. The BJP, JD(U), LJP, HAM, and RLM cover almost every caste group in Bihar, while the Muslim-Yadav block remains the opposition’s strength. The ruling alliance encompasses forward caste voters and backward ones.
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Another strength of the NDA is its focus on development and infrastructure, including new bridges, highways, and airports. There is a silent confidence among top leaders.
Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, despite being 74 and facing questions about his mental abilities from the opposition, still enjoys a lot of goodwill and is considered wise. The game-changer for the NDA is the ₹10,000 scheme given to 75 lakh women under the CM Mahila Rozgar Yojana.
Women, who have used this money to buy goats or calves, still trust Nitish Kumar. Prohibition followed by this significant cash transfer has solidified their support for him.
The NDA’s seat-sharing arrangement reflects cohesion and mutual agreement rather than pressure politics. The BJP and JD(U) will each contest 101 seats, marking a significant shift in their dynamic as they will contest an equal number of seats for the first time. It changes the traditional ‘big brother, small brother’ notion about the two parties.
Chirag Paswan’s LJP is contesting 29 seats, marking their complete return to the NDA. In 2020, they contested 135 seats independently and, in 2015, they contested 42 seats when JD(U) was not part of the NDA. In 2010, they contested 75 seats with the RJD. This time, mutual agreement has prevailed.
Jitan Ram Manjhi, compared to the seven seats he contested last time, has received six seats within the NDA, along with one Lok Sabha MP and one Union minister enhancing his stature. Upendra Kushwaha is currently in the Rajya Sabha and may become a Union minister in future. He has also been allotted six assembly seats. All alliance partners have publicly welcomed the seat-sharing arrangement, reflecting cordiality within the NDA.
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In the 2020 elections, both Chirag and Kushwaha contested outside the NDA and negatively affected JD(U)’s seat tally. This time, with both being part of the NDA, the chances of such damage are minimised.
The NDA faces the challenge of Nitish Kumar’s mental health, with the opposition’s relentless attacks portraying him as an ‘absent CM’. However, many still see him as a wise leader with empathy. Plus, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s campaign is yet to commence.
On the other hand, the Mahagathbandan seems disorganised and may have peaked too early with its yatra last month on the SIR issue. Seat distribution troubles and unreliable allies like VIP’s Mukesh Sahni are creating issues.
In the 2020 polls, the RJD performed well but the Congress dragged the alliance down by winning only 19 out of the 70 seats it contested. This time appears similar.
The Congress stirred some sentiment on the SIR issue with Rahul Gandhi’s yatra but seems to have peaked early. Tejashwi Yadav seemed overshadowed by Gandhi and later conducted his own yatra.
Stuck at a 23 percent vote share from the last election, the RJD is trying to expand beyond its M-Y vote bank but it looks difficult. Legal troubles for the Yadav family are further complicating matters.
In a desperate move, Tejashwi announced a promise of a government job for every family in Bihar, which seems more like election-driven theatrics than a calculated policy. This promise would require generating 21.5 million new jobs, costing close to ₹4.6 lakh crore annually, nearly doubling the state’s entire budget.
Bihar is in an economic predicament, and the culture of freebies from either the RJD or JD(U) isn’t helping. The wild card in this election is Prashant Kishor and his Jan Suraaj Party.
Kishor is appealing to Bihar’s youth, urging them to rise above caste politics and vote for their future, end migration, and lift prohibition. He is banking on the frustration among the youth. His vote share, whether single or double digits, could significantly impact the election outcome.
