The strongholds: West Bengal and Assam
In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee remains the dominant force. The TMC is projected to secure 184–194 seats with a 41.9% vote share, comfortably crossing the majority mark.
Despite the BJP’s projected growth to 98–108 seats, the incumbent Chief Minister maintains a significant lead in leadership preference (48.5%).
A critical demographic divide persists: Muslims and women largely back the TMC, while the BJP leads among Scheduled Tribes and upper-caste Hindus.
Likewise,
Assam shows a clear tilt toward the status quo. The BJP-led NDA is expected to win 80–90 seats with a 42.7% vote share.
Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s leadership remains a primary engine for the alliance, boasting a 48% approval rating. While unemployment (25.7%) and flooding remain top concerns, the NDA’s flagship welfare schemes have successfully buffered against major anti-incumbency.
The Battlegrounds: Tamil Nadu and Kerala
In the southern state of Tamil Nadu, a “razor-close” fight between the DMK+ (40.1%) and AIADMK+ (38.1%) is expected. With only two percentage points separating the majors, the electorate is deeply polarised; 39% of voters view the DMK’s performance negatively.
Actor Vijay’s TVK has emerged as a potent third force (14.8%), threatening to act as a spoiler in youth-heavy constituencies.
Kerala presents an even tighter “photo finish.” The LDF is projected at 68–74 seats, while the UDF follows closely with 64–70 seats.
Their vote shares are nearly identical at 36.5% and 36.6%, respectively. Dissatisfaction is high among the 35–44 age group and rural voters, with price rise (19.7%) being the decisive issue.
