“The ban from China is not questioning availability, but it is giving a reason for the suppliers to jack up the price,” Biyani said in an interview with CNBC-TV18.
While China’s procedural delays have effectively blocked exports of specialty fertilisers to India, Biyani noted that most listed Indian fertiliser companies operate primarily in the bulk fertiliser segment—urea and phosphate micronutrients—and are only marginally exposed to specialty fertilisers. “These specialty fertilisers are very minuscule as far as the overall percentage of top line is concerned,” he said.
Fertiliser stocks did react negatively when the news of China’s export halt first broke, but Biyani does not see a long-term disruption. “There are several sources from where you can get these fertilisers,” he said, citing the Middle East, North Africa, and Russia as viable alternatives. While prices may remain elevated, availability is not expected to be a major challenge.
Global geopolitical tensions have, however, led to price spikes in key raw materials. Sulphur prices have tripled from $100 to $300 per tonne since October, and DAP prices have also risen significantly—from $520–540 a quarter ago to about $700–740 now. “Supply chain concerns have been there, and that has led to an increase in price,” Biyani explained.
Looking ahead, Biyani is structurally positive on companies in the phosphate fertiliser segment, particularly Coromandel and Paradeep Phosphates. “Both of them offer a very good opportunity in terms of import replacement of fertilisers,” he said, adding that their investments in backward integration should help drive better EBITDA growth this quarter, even as revenue growth remains modest.
