“Given that 2029 could be a women-led election year for the BJP, they may again opt for a woman candidate,” political analyst Manisha Priyam told CNBC-TV18, pointing out that deft handling of the Rajya Sabha will likely be central to the party’s choice.
“The person needs to manage the House and hold authority over both the ruling party and the opposition.”
Priyam noted that the resignation’s timing—after presiding over the first day of the monsoon session—suggests it was not purely for health reasons.
“Had the resignation been tendered before the session convened, it wouldn’t have been that surprising. But on Day One, after presiding over the Rajya Sabha, to resign at the end of the day’s business is significant,” she said.
According to her, an exchange between Leader of the House JP Nadda and Leader of Opposition Mallikarjun Kharge—possibly undercutting the Chair—may have been the final straw.
With Dhankhar’s exit, the BJP’s focus will now turn to picking a successor who can navigate an increasingly combative Rajya Sabha while also reinforcing the party’s broader political messaging. A woman candidate, especially one with credibility in parliamentary procedure, could check multiple boxes, Priyam said, adding, “The messaging could be both about competence and inclusion.”
The BJP, known for surprising choices in top constitutional appointments, is expected to continue that trend.
“No one predicted Jagdeep Dhankhar for Vice President, or Ram Nath Kovind for President. So, I expect a surprise again,” said Sandeep Shastri, National Coordinator of Lokniti and VP of Nitte Education Trust. He ruled out high-profile names like Rajnath Singh or Nitin Gadkari, who continue to hold key responsibilities in the Union government.
Political analyst Ratan Sharda echoed this view, adding, “Trying to predict Modi’s next move only makes you look foolish.” He dismissed speculation around Nitish Kumar and Rajnath Singh, citing their importance in Bihar politics and the Defence Ministry, respectively.
Sharda also suggested that Dhankhar’s role had become increasingly fraught due to regular clashes in Parliament. “His job had become very stressful,” he said.
“You’re dealing with a disruptive opposition and constant institutional confrontations.” While Dhankhar cited health reasons, Sharda said there may be some political discomfort as well.
“I think there is some truth in the health argument,” he noted, though he also pointed to the Prime Minister’s unusually terse statement. “Just 24 words, over 12 hours later—that’s not Modi’s usual open-hearted compliment. It was cryptic.”
Shastri, too, expressed skepticism about the official explanation. “When they are not in good health, power is what keeps politicians going,” he said, calling it unprecedented for a vice president to resign mid-term on medical grounds. “A range of issues” likely contributed, he added, including Dhankhar’s uneasy ties with the opposition and repeated stand-offs between institutions.
While the full story behind Dhankhar’s resignation may never emerge, analysts agree it marks an unprecedented moment in Indian parliamentary history. With over two years still left in his term, the surprise exit raises serious questions—and opens up a high-stakes succession process.
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