The Indian Express reported that the BJP and JDU are expected to contest 100–105 seats each out of the total 243 constituencies. The Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), led by Chirag Paswan, which has been demanding 40 seats, may get about half that number. The remaining seats will be divided between Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM (S) and Upendra Kushwaha’s RLM.
The equations could shift if Mukesh Sahani’s VIP, currently part of the RJD-Congress Mahagathbandhan, decides to cross over to the NDA, the report mentioned.
JDU’s stance, LJP’s demand
In 2020, the JDU contested 115 seats and the BJP 110, while the VIP (then in NDA) fought 11 and HAM(S) seven. The LJP contested 135 seats alone, damaging JDU’s prospects, though it won just one. The BJP emerged stronger with 74 seats compared to JDU’s 43.
The report said the JD(U) is unwilling to settle for fewer than 100 seats. “The party still commands nearly 10% of Bihar’s vote, largely among EBCs, and the polls are being fought under Nitish Kumar’s leadership. The campaign is centred on bringing him back as CM, so there’s no question of JDU accepting fewer seats than the BJP,” a senior alliance leader told IE.
The LJP (RV) remains the toughest nut to crack. Despite winning only one seat in 2020, its aggressive strategy hurt JDU in 27 constituencies. Now, buoyed by its 2024 Lok Sabha performance — winning all five seats it contested and securing over 6% vote share — the party is pushing for 40 Assembly seats.
A senior BJP leader dismissed the demand as excessive: “They have five MPs and that will be respected, but the realistic figure is closer to 20. We also need to accommodate Kushwaha, Manjhi, and perhaps a few new entrants.”
JDU leaders, meanwhile, argue that the Lok Sabha performance does not automatically translate to the Assembly polls. “Local strength and grassroots presence matter far more,” one leader told the newspaper.
Pressure tactics
LJP (RV) leaders have stepped up criticism of Nitish’s government, particularly on law and order. Chirag Paswan has been vocal about a return to state politics, with an eye on expanding his base to eventually secure 15% of Bihar’s votes.
Despite its ambitions, the party won just 5.66% vote share in 2020, though its spoiler role remains a critical factor in this year’s seat-sharing calculus.
