Coal India shares may witness a relief rally but it may be short-lived: JPMorgan

Coal India Ltd., the country’s largest mining company, has had a subdued first half of 2025, with the state-run stock remaining flat on a year-to-date basis. The stock has corrected nearly 30% from its peak of ₹543.55, which it had hit in August last year.

Global brokerage firm JPMorgan has a ‘Neutral’ rating on Coal India, with a price target of ₹415 per share.

The brokerage said that the state-run miner could start posting monthly volume growth from July/August, as the year-ago base becomes more favorable. Last year, July sales were flat year-on-year, while August saw a 12% YoY decline.
Prima facie, JPMorgan believes the stock may see a slight relief rally, but it may be short-lived.
Coal India’s overall production in June fell 8.5% from the same month last year to 57.8 MT. Its production declined by 3.2% to 183.3 million tonnes.

The overall production figure at the end of the quarter, is 21% of the financial year 2026 production guidance of 875 MT.

India’s largest miner also reported a 7.4% drop in offtake to 60.5 MT in June, compared to 65.2 MT last year.

For the quarter, Coal India’s offtake fell 4.5% from the year-ago quarter to 190.1 MT.

Of the 24 analysts that have coverage on Coal India, 17 of them have a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock, while four have a ‘Hold’ rating. Three analysts have a ‘Sell’ recommendation on the PSU.

Shares of Coal India are trading 0.97% lower at ₹383.70. The stock has fallen 4% in the last one month.