Ahead of the 2026 Kerala Assembly elections, an opinion poll suggests a tight contest between the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), with the former holding a marginal edge.
Close contest between LDF and UDF
According to an IANS-Matrize opinion poll, the LDF is projected to win 61–71 seats in the 140-member Assembly with a vote share of 42–43%, while the UDF is expected to secure 58–69 seats with a vote share of 41–42%. The narrow gap indicates a highly competitive election, raising questions over whether the Congress can stage a comeback.
BJP-led NDA may gain vote share
The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is seen improving its footprint, with an estimated 12–13% vote share. However, this may translate into only around two seats, underscoring the state’s largely bipolar electoral dynamics dominated by the LDF and UDF.
Polling schedule and electoral landscape
The 2026 Kerala Assembly elections are scheduled to be held in a single phase on April 9, with counting of votes on May 4. Traditionally, the contest in the state has been primarily between the CPI(M)-led LDF and the Congress-led UDF, with the NDA playing a limited but gradually expanding role.
Kerala assembly elections results 2021
In the 2021 Assembly elections, the LDF made history by retaining power with 99 seats — the first time since 1977 that an incumbent alliance returned to power in Kerala. The UDF secured 41 seats, while the NDA failed to win any seat despite garnering 11.4% of the vote. The LDF also led in vote share with 41.5%, ahead of the UDF’s 38.4%, paving the way for Pinarayi Vijayan to return as Chief Minister after completing a full term.
Voter base and demographics
The Election Commission has finalised Kerala’s electoral roll, with a total of 2.69 crore registered voters. This includes 1.31 crore male voters, 1.38 crore female voters and 227 third-gender voters. Notably, over 4.24 lakh voters fall in the 18–19 age group, highlighting the role young voters could play in shaping the outcome of the upcoming election.
Also Read: Kerala elections 2026: Full list of Congress candidates
