‘Only real leverage’: Iran unlikely to reopen Strait of Hormuz anytime soon, claims US intelligence report

Sources say Iran can continue disrupting traffic to keep global energy prices high, increasing pressure on US President Donald Trump to end the nearly five-week war, which has been unpopular with American voters. The conflict may also have strengthened Iran’s regional position by demonstrating its ability to threaten a critical trade route.Trump has downplayed the difficulty of reopening the strait, suggesting US forces could do so quickly.“With a little more time, we can easily OPEN THE HORMUZ STRAIT, TAKE THE OIL, & MAKE A FORTUNE,” he posted on Truth Social.Also Read | ‘Can easily open Hormuz, take oil & make fortune’: Trump makes ‘gushing’ claims_{However, analysts warn military action would be risky and costly, given Iran’s geographic advantage and its ability to strike using drones, missiles, and naval tactics.Since the war began, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has attacked commercial vessels, deployed naval mines, and imposed passage fees, making the route unsafe and sharply reducing traffic. These actions have pushed oil prices to multi-year highs and triggered fuel shortages in countries dependent on Gulf exports, while also raising inflation risks in America ahead of the midterm elections.Intelligence sources say Iran is unlikely to give up this leverage even after the war. The Strait of Hormuz is only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, with shipping lanes about 2 miles wide in each direction, making vessels easy targets. Even limited attacks can disrupt transit.Experts add that even if the US secures parts of the coastline, Iran could still disrupt shipping using long-range capabilities from within its territory. Tehran may also seek to retain control to strengthen its negotiating position, secure deterrence, and generate revenue through transit fees for post-war reconstruction.}