The currency weakened to 92.54 per US dollar, surpassing last week’s record low of 92.47, as global markets grappled with the fallout from the war in Iran.
Brent crude prices have jumped nearly 40% since the conflict erupted, amplifying concerns over India’s trade and inflation dynamics.
Banks are positioning for the rupee’s continued underperformance against select Asian currencies.
Barclays recommends a long position on the Chinese yuan versus the rupee, citing China’s resilient exports and robust crude reserves, which shield it from the oil shock.
HSBC, meanwhile, favors the Singapore dollar, expecting policy support from the Singaporean central bank to manage imported inflation.
“The escalation in the Middle East is likely to deepen the divergence between India and China, with India facing more immediate pressures,” said Mitul Kotecha, Head of FX & EM Macro Strategy Asia at Barclays.
Since the conflict began, the rupee has lost roughly 1.5%, while the yuan and Singapore dollar have dipped only modestly, by 0.2% and 0.8% respectively.
Macro-focused hedge funds are treading cautiously amid rising volatility, trimming exposures and focusing on risk management rather than aggressive currency trades.
Traders noted that while relative value opportunities exist between energy winners and losers, most market participants are keeping positions limited in the near term.
-With agencies inputs
