Markets saw a relief rally when Trump said semiconductors and other electronic items, most of which are manufactured in China and form a bulk of its exports to the US, will be exempt from the reciprocal tariffs of 125 percent, only to say again that they will not be exempt, just pushed into a different bucket of tariffs.
When asked when will they be announced, he said “In the not too distant future.” That has become Trump’s newest “Takiya Kalaam”
or catchphrase as they call it.
It has been 25 years to the cult classic Hera Pheri and what better an instance than this to commemorate that iconic film. The tariff flipflop reminds you of Baburao Ganpatrao Apte’s (Paresh Rawal) sermon to Khadak Singh (played by the late Om Puri) – “Paisa to aaj hai, kal nahi hai, parsu hai.” (If there’s money today, it may not be there tomorrow, but surely return the day after).
Replace paisa with tariffs and we get the same context that summarises the state of affairs of this tariff circus.
What’s worse is the fact that everybody has something different to say. There is no clarity or congruence in any decision or process. Trump says point A, half an hour later Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick will say point B, the White House will release an official statement saying point C, while Scott Bessent, the treasury secretary or Kevin Hasset, the economic advisor to the White House will be on a completely different tangents. And of course, who can forget Elon Musk.
Who suffers here? The small business.
Jhagda kisika bhi ho, bewajah, marta main hi hoon!”
Nasseruddin Shah’s angry retaliation in A Wednesday (2007) sums up the state of affairs of the small businesses suffering at the hands of US and China trying to play Jo Jeeta Wahi Sikandar. Social media is flooded with businesses claiming their Earnings Before Tax (EBITDA) for months, being wiped out in just a few days and businesses, instead of being in expansion mode, are shifting to cash conservation mode and nobody knows what will happen next.
Another one suffering is the US equity trader. If you look at any of the intraday chart of the Dow Jones, the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq over the last five days, you will know that it is a trader’s graveyard. The price action makes it impossible for a day trader to make a living. A 1,500-point down Dow Jones ends 3,000 points higher within minutes, just as Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs.
People who had to know, knew. The poor trader who may have had shorts, hoping the market goes down further, didn’t.
You would go giddy looking at those charts.
Ab inko joota sunghao, ya sada hua pyaaz, hosh to inko interval ke baad hi aayega. (Govinda in Dulhe Raja, 1998).
The tariff drama has taken a 90-day interval. But its that kind of an interval where instead of soap and light bulb ads, you’ll still find the movie playing in some way or the other. Autos, Pharma, Semiconductors await their fate at the hands of a mercurial President who has turned the global trade upside down in barely three months after taking office.
In times like these, we remember lines by the late Hasrat Jaipuri, immortalised by the evergreen Kishore Kumar – Yahaan Kal Kya Ho Kisne Jaana! (Who knows what happens tomorrow!)
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