An AFP analysis of satellite imagery, ship-tracking data and expert interviews has raised fresh questions about China’s maritime activities after thousands of Chinese fishing boats were detected forming geometric formations in the East China Sea. According to the AFP report, the unusual gatherings, recorded across several days between December and early January, have prompted maritime and defence experts to consider whether Beijing is testing its ability to mobilise civilian vessels for potential military or strategic purposes.The analysis suggests that while the vessels are technically part of China’s massive fishing fleet, the scale, precision and coordination of the formations have led experts to believe that the boats were not engaged in normal fishing activity. Instead, the events may point to preparations for crisis scenarios in the region, including a potential blockade or conflict involving Taiwan or Japan.
What was detected in the East China Sea
According to the AFP analysis, the first major incident was detected on December 25, when roughly 2,000 Chinese fishing vessels assembled in two large parallel inverted L-shaped formations in the East China Sea, about 300 kilometres northeast of Taiwan.The formations were detected through Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals, which commercial vessels use to broadcast their location to avoid collisions. Satellite imagery and maritime monitoring tools confirmed that the boats maintained their positions in close proximity for roughly 30 hours, despite near gale-force winds.Jason Wang, chief operating officer of maritime data firm ingeniSPACE, told AFP that the patterns appeared highly unusual.He explained that thousands of vessels forming straight lines across hundreds of kilometres is extremely rare in normal maritime behaviour. While fishing vessels often gather in groups where fish stocks are abundant, the geometric patterns detected in the East China Sea suggested something different.The boats were positioned as close as 500 metres apart and formed lines stretching nearly 400 kilometres, before dispersing suddenly after maintaining formation for more than a day.
A second and third gathering raised further questions
The analysis found that the Christmas Day event was not an isolated occurrence.In early January, roughly 1,000 Chinese fishing vessels again gathered in the same general area, forming what analysts described as a large uneven rectangle stretching around 400 kilometres. Many of the vessels involved had also been detected in the earlier December formation.A third incident occurred weeks later, when about 1,200 vessels formed two long parallel lines further east in the East China Sea. Similar to previous incidents, the vessels maintained formation for around 30 hours before dispersing.Experts interviewed by AFP said the repeated formations indicated a level of coordination and command that is rarely seen in civilian fishing operations.
Experts say boats were “clearly not fishing”
Several maritime and security analysts cited in the AFP analysis said the formations did not resemble normal fishing patterns.Gregory Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, told AFP he had never seen Chinese fishing boats mass in such numbers outside a port.Similarly, Jennifer Parker, a former Australian naval warfare officer now with the Australian National University’s National Security College, said the proximity and density of the vessels strongly suggested they were not engaged in fishing.Fishing fleets typically spread out to maximise their catch. Boats packed closely together in precise lines across hundreds of kilometres would not be operating efficiently as a fishing operation.
Evidence suggests large-scale coordination
The AFP report states that its investigation involved analysis of AIS ship-tracking data and nighttime satellite imagery, as well as verification from maritime intelligence firms including Starboard Maritime Intelligence and the French surveillance company Unseenlabs.Experts reviewing the data concluded that the vessels were real and not spoofed, meaning the AIS signals were not artificially manipulated.Mark Douglas, a maritime analyst at Starboard and a former New Zealand naval officer, compared the recent patterns with vessel behaviour in the same region over the previous two years.He told AFP that nothing similar had occurred before. Even during bad weather, fishing boats typically returned to port rather than gathering offshore in structured formations.This led analysts to believe that the vessels may have been directed to gather, rather than doing so spontaneously.
Why analysts suspect a state-directed operation
According to the analysis, the number of vessels involved suggests the events may have been organised at a national level.Thomas Shugart, a former US Navy submarine warfare officer and defence analyst, told AFP that coordinating thousands of vessels would be difficult for a commercial fishing entity alone.The sheer scale of the formations therefore suggests the possibility of a state-directed mobilisation exercise, possibly testing how quickly large numbers of vessels can be assembled.China operates one of the world’s largest fishing fleets, with tens of thousands of vessels active across the Yellow Sea, East China Sea and South China Sea.
The role of China’s maritime militia
One key explanation discussed in the AFP analysis involves China’s maritime militia, a network of fishing vessels trained to support military and coastguard operations.These civilian boats are often used in “grey zone” tactics, actions that fall short of open military conflict but allow Beijing to assert territorial claims or apply pressure in disputed waters.The militia has previously been used in the South China Sea, where large numbers of Chinese fishing boats have surrounded disputed reefs or blocked other countries’ vessels.AIS data analysed in the AFP investigation suggested that many of the vessels involved in the East China Sea formations appeared to originate from Zhejiang province, which hosts several ports associated with maritime militia units.
Why civilian vessels matter for a Taiwan scenario
According to experts cited in the AFP report, civilian vessels could play a crucial role in any potential Chinese military operation around Taiwan.China’s navy is the largest in the world by number of ships, but analysts say it still lacks enough specialised landing vessels to transport the large number of troops and equipment required for a full-scale amphibious invasion.Civilian ships such as ferries, cargo vessels and fishing boats could therefore be used to supplement military transport capacity.In such a scenario, fishing vessels might serve multiple roles including logistics support, surveillance, decoys or harassment of enemy ships.
Growing tensions around Taiwan
The analysis also places the fishing boat formations within the broader context of rising tensions around Taiwan.China claims Taiwan as part of its territory and has repeatedly said it would use force if necessary to bring the island under its control.In recent years Beijing has increased military pressure by sending fighter jets and warships around Taiwan almost daily, while also conducting large-scale military exercises that analysts say resemble rehearsals for a blockade or invasion.A 2025 US Department of Defense report stated that China is working toward military capabilities that could enable it to fight and potentially win a conflict over Taiwan by 2027.
What it means for regional security
The analysis suggests the unusual formations of fishing vessels could represent a test of China’s ability to mobilise civilian maritime assets quickly and in large numbers.While there is no direct evidence that the gatherings were linked to an imminent military operation, the patterns are consistent with preparations for scenarios involving Taiwan or other regional disputes.Experts note that such activities fall into the category of “grey zone” operations, which are difficult for other countries to respond to because they involve civilian vessels rather than formal military deployments.
Beijing silent as questions remain
China has not publicly commented on the formations detected in the East China Sea, according to the AFP report.Regional governments are also cautious in their responses. Japan’s coast guard declined to comment when contacted by AFP, even as tensions between Tokyo and Beijing have grown over Taiwan and maritime disputes.For analysts, the events highlight the growing complexity of maritime competition in East Asia, where civilian fleets, militias and military forces increasingly operate in overlapping roles.It remains unclear whether these formations were simply a coordination exercise or part of broader preparations linked to China’s long-term strategic goals in the region. However, the scale of the gatherings has added to concerns about how civilian maritime assets could be used in a future crisis.
