Some experts believe Singh may dent Nitish’s vote share, similar to how LJP (RV) leader Chirag Paswan affected JDU’s performance in the 2020 state elections. A reduction in JDU’s seat tally could indirectly benefit the Mahagathbandhan.
BJP’s dilemma
The BJP faces its own dilemma amid Nitish Kumar’s declining popularity and has so far refrained from projecting him as the chief ministerial candidate. Kishor has claimed that if the NDA wins, the BJP may install its own chief minister, a move that could create friction within the JDU-BJP alliance.
Kishor has also been targeting the RJD and its MLA Tejashwi Yadav from the outset. His strategy appears to focus on attracting the RJD’s youth vote base, particularly among Yadav and Muslim voters. If Jan Suraaj succeeds in making inroads into the Mahagathbandhan’s support base, it could create challenges for Tejashwi.
Which party or alliance will Be affected?
The merger of Jan Suraaj and Aasa is likely to pose challenges for the NDA, especially the JDU, as both Kishor and Singh are directly targeting Nitish. However, if Jan Suraaj also manages to erode the Mahagathbandhan’s vote share, the election may become a triangular contest, with both major alliances losing ground.
NDA vs Mahagathbandhan: Who has the upper hand?
A close contest is anticipated between the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan in the 2025 elections. Here is an analysis:
NDA
Strengths:
Nitish Kumar’s long-standing experience in Bihar politics
Popular welfare schemes under Nitish’s government, such as Saat Nischay and women’s reservation
BJP’s robust organisational network and access to central government resources
BJP leader Syed Shahnawaz Hussain has claimed that the NDA will win over 200 seats under Nitish’s leadership.
Weaknesses:
Nitish Kumar’s declining popularity and growing anti-incumbency
In a recent survey, only 17% of respondents favoured Nitish as chief minister, while Tejashwi Yadav had the support of 35.5%
Potential friction between the JDU and BJP over seat sharing
Challenges posed by Jan Suraaj and RCP Singh to Nitish’s voter base
Mahagathbandhan
Strengths:
Tejashwi Yadav’s youthful image and the RJD’s status as the largest party in the 2020 state elections
Strong support from Yadav and Muslim communities
Strategy to leverage Nitish Kumar’s weakening public image
Weaknesses:
The BJP and Jan Suraaj are actively highlighting the RJD’s previous tenure, often labelled as ‘Jungle Raj’
Weak performance of Congress and smaller alliance partners
Kishor’s vocal criticism of Tejashwi Yadav
(Edited by : Akanksha Upadhyay)
First Published: May 19, 2025 10:12 PM IST
