He adds that US President Donald Trump is working against time, with pressure to resolve the conflict before the midterm elections come into focus. Lee expects some near-term intensification, but says the approach will remain measured, aimed at pushing negotiations and wrapping up the situation by late spring or early summer to avoid political fallout.
These are edited excerpts from the interview.
Q: Do you get a sense that we’ve seen a dangerous widening of the conflict? Three and a half thousand US troops have arrived. Yemen’s Houthi militants have joined the conflict. How are you reading the latest signals?
A: The standard scenario is an expansion of fighting, but a different perspective can be considered. What we are sending are troops, quick reaction forces, Marines from Asia into the Iranian theatre. I expect that these military actions will be very surgical, as they have been so far.
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The United States has gone out of its way to contain the fighting from affecting the Iranian population. It has been centred on getting rid of command and control centres and the governance structure among extremists, especially on the military side. Many of the regular army facilities have been left alone because they have not shown the same radical impulses as the Iranian Guard.
If troops are on the ground, it will be for surgical strikes to contain Iran’s ability to export oil, including Kharg Island. The aim is to limit the government’s ability to do business as usual and push it toward serious negotiations. This strategy is likely to unfold over the next several days and weeks.
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President Trump is under a short timeline. He has to wrap this up before the midterm elections come into view. There is some time, but by late spring or early summer, this must be resolved, or it will impact the Republicans’ ability to retain control. Military actions will remain surgical, aimed at limiting operations and incentivising negotiations.
Q: There are more troops in the region now, with more coming by April 6, including two large warships. Is this about strengthening negotiation leverage, or does it lead to escalation?
A: It depends on what you mean by escalation. The Houthis have escalated by firing missiles, but this appears largely performative. They fired a couple of missiles, which were intercepted, and that’s about it.
The ability of the Iranian government to fund the Houthis has been cut off significantly. President Trump has been seeking confidence-building measures to ensure he is negotiating with the right counterparts. The demonstration that the Strait of Hormuz can be controlled and ships allowed to pass is important in that context.
There are still non-government extremist elements that can cause damage. Military actions will likely focus on containing those elements and bringing them under control.
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