The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is seen improving its tally to 98–108 seats, but falling short of the numbers required to dislodge the incumbent government. Other parties, including Congress and the Left Front, are expected to remain marginal with just 1–3 seats.
This is the first tracker of the broader opinion poll, with the full survey set to be released on April 6.
On vote share, the TMC is estimated to garner 41.9%, while the BJP is pegged at 34.9%, broadly in line with trends seen during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. A sizeable 13% of voters remain undecided, making them a key swing factor.
Community-wise trends indicate strong support for the TMC among Muslims, while the BJP leads among Scheduled Tribes. Scheduled Caste and Dalit voters appear split between the two major parties. The Left and Congress together account for a limited 7.7% vote share.
Mamata Banerjee continues to lead the preferred Chief Minister race with 48.5% support, ahead of BJP’s Suvendu Adhikari at 33.4%. Women voters show slightly higher support for Banerjee, while tribal and upper-caste Hindu voters lean towards Adhikari.
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Among key issues, unemployment emerges as the top concern for voters, cited by 37.2% of respondents. Law and order, along with women’s safety, follow at 15.9%, while price rise and corruption remain secondary concerns.
The survey also flags challenges for the BJP, including internal factionalism, leadership concerns and organisational gaps, even as the party sharpens its campaign around corruption. Meanwhile, TMC appears to be managing anti-incumbency, aided by its core support base.
Elections in West Bengal will be held in two phases on April 23 and April 29, with counting scheduled for May 4.
