Can TMC survive SIR disruptions and alliance wars in 2026

The quiet bureaucratic phrase—Special Intensive Revision (SIR)—has, in West Bengal, acquired the force of a political tremor. With more than 91 lakh names struck off the electoral rolls, the exercise has moved far beyond administrative housekeeping. It now sits at the heart of the political contest ahead of 2026.The geography of deletion is what gives the story its edge. Districts such as Malda and Murshidabad—long defined by their dense Muslim populations—have seen a disproportionate share of exclusions or flags for review. In a state where Muslims account for roughly 27% of the population and exert decisive influence across more than a hundred Assembly constituencies, even the perception of disenfranchisement carries electoral consequences.For over a decade, this demographic reality has underwritten the dominance of the Trinamool Congress. Under Mamata Banerjee, the party successfully consolidated Muslim voters into a formidable electoral bloc. By 2021, that consolidation had peaked: post-poll data suggested nearly three-fourths of Muslim voters backed the TMC, transforming what might have been a difficult election into a landslide victory. The backdrop—CAA, NRC, and the anxieties they generated—only deepened this alignment.